Gaps Between Official and Excess COVID-19 Mortality Measures

Journal: Economic Modelling (Aug. 2022)
Coauthors: Joshua Aizenman, Alex Cukierman, Yothin Jinjarak and Weining Xin.
Assets: [ NBER Working Paper | Published Version | GitHub ]

We evaluate quartile rankings of countries during the COVID-19 pandemic using both official (confirmed) and excess mortality data. By December 2021, the quartile rankings of three-fifths of the countries differ when ranked by excess vs. official mortality. Countries that were "doing substantially better" in the excess mortality measure were characterized by higher urban population shares; higher GDP per capita; and higher scores on institutional and policy variables. In a narrow model, after controlling for GDP per capita and vaccination rates, we find that the Excess / Official mortality ratio was smaller in countries with higher vaccination rates. In a broader model, after adding institutional and policy variables, the Excess / Official mortality ratio was smaller in countries with a higher institutional measure of voice and accountability.